Andrew Ang

Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets, or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?

Coauthor(s): Geert Bekaert, Min Wei. View Publication

Abstract:

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time-series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free specifications; and survey-based measures. We also investigate several methods of combining forecasts. Our results show that surveys outperform the other forecasting methods and that the term structure specifications perform relatively poorly. We find little evidence that combining forecasts produces superior forecasts to survey information alone. When combining forecasts, the data consistently places the highest weights on survey information.

The final version of this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.006.

Source: Journal of Monetary Economics
Exact Citation:
Bekaert, Geert, Andrew Ang, and Min Wei. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets, or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?" Journal of Monetary Economics 54, no. 4 (May 2007): 1163-1212.
Volume: 54
Number: 4
Pages: 1163-1212
Date: 5 2007