Enrique Arzac

A Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States Livestock and Grain Markets and Some of Its Policy Implications

Coauthor(s): Maurice Wilkinson.

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Abstract:
This paper discusses the structural equations, forecasting properties, dynamic characteristics, and economic policy implications of a quarterly econometric model of U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets. Quarterly, semi-annual, and annual endogenous variables are incorporated by allowing individual structural equations to be estimated and to enter into the solution of the model with different periodicities. Commodity prices are determined by market equilibrium conditions rather than by autoregressive and other time-series techniques. Dynamic multipliers give the effect of changes in corn exports, beef imports, government grain stocks, corn yield, consumer income, and the support price for corn on producer and retail prices and acreage planted.

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