Frank Lichtenberg

The contribution of pharmaceutical innovation to longevity growth in Germany and France, 2001–2007

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Abstract:

I investigate the contribution of pharmaceutical innovation to recent longevity growth in Germany and France. First, I examine the effect of the vintage of prescription drugs (and other variables) on the life expectancy and age-adjusted mortality rates of residents of Germany, using longitudinal, annual, state-level data during the period 2001–2007. The estimates imply that about one-third of the 1.4-year increase in German life expectancy during the period 2001–2007 was due to the replacement of older drugs by newer drugs. Next, I examine the effect of the vintage of chemotherapy treatments on age-adjusted cancer mortality rates of residents of France, using longitudinal, annual, cancer-site-level data during the period 2002–2006. The estimates imply that chemotherapy innovation accounted for at least one-sixth of the decline in French cancer mortality rates, and may have accounted for as much as half of the decline.

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