Tano Santos

Understanding Predictability

Coauthor(s): Lior Menzly, Pietro Veronesi.

We propose a general equilibrium model with multiple securities in which investors' risk preferences and expectations of dividend growth are time-varying. While time-varying risk preferences induce the standard positive relation between the dividend yield and expected returns, time-varying expected dividend growth induces a negative relation between them. These offsetting effects reduce the ability of the dividend yield to forecast returns and eliminate its ability to forecast dividend growth, as observed in the data. The model links the predictability of returns to that of dividend growth, suggesting specific changes to standard linear predictive regressions for both. The model's predictions are confirmed empirically.

Source: Journal of Political Economy
Exact Citation:
Menzly, Lior, Tano Santos, and Pietro Veronesi. "Understanding Predictability." Journal of Political Economy 112, no. 1 (February 2004): 1-47.
Volume: 112
Number: 1
Pages: 1-47
Date: 2 2004